By Greig McGill
OK, so it’s an awkward time to be championing the USA right now. Like it or not though, the USA has had the most influence on the beer culture we immerse ourselves in as brewers. Let’s have a look at some of the trends happening in the USA right now, not all as a result of Orange Lunatic Economics, but also organic trends that have been bubbling away for a while now. Let’s also see the impact you, as a home brewer, can have on these trends, or how you can take advantage of them to be ahead of the curve as they inevitably make their way across the Pacific to our little corner of the beery world.
I’ve recently returned from a very fun, but very liver-taxing three week trip to the USA. Ostensibly, I was there for the Craft Brewers Conference in Indianapolis, but I did manage to get some drinking done in Los Angeles, San Diego, Denver, Seattle, Las Vegas, and the San Francisco Bay Area as well, so my view is a little West Coast heavy, but balanced by chatting to many brewers (and drinkers) at the conference.
I guess I should start by setting the scene. To say it’s not all roses right now would be an understatement. The big news, of course, is the large decline in craft beer consumption leading to many breweries closing, and many more downsizing and trying to just hang in there by any means necessary. This is mostly, the data says, being driven by Gen Z either not drinking, or not choosing to drink beer when they do drink. The primary reason they give is that they “don’t like the taste”. This suggests to me, at least, that we (I speak with my pro brewer hat on now) have done a terrible job over the last decade or so of telling people why beer is great! The fact that beer can now be ruled out en masse as not tasting good, means that a lot more work needs to be done in communicating just how broad the category is, and how much variety of flavour is out there to be savoured and experienced. I mean, imagine someone saying “I don’t like fruit” when all they’ve ever tried is a banana?
I’m going to start by blaming my usual scapegoat - the hazy IPA! But not really. I’m really blaming the industry shift since the rise of the hazy IPA. Trends have always been a thing, but until the hazy IPA came along, there hadn’t been such an industry dominating move to all brew a single style since the advent of the Pilsner in the 19th century. And look what that did to the variety in brewing worldwide? Pilsner directly led to beer being synonymous with “boring yellow beer”. Is it any wonder that people are visiting their local breweries for the first time, finding a bunch of beer that all looks and tastes mostly the same, and if they don’t like that, assuming beer isn’t for them? Just like with Pilsner, there are some really fantastic examples of a hazy IPA, and nobody should want to make that style go back in the box it crawled out of, but the slow lesson currently being learned by the US beer industry is that we must get back to diversity in beer. Home brewing can, as it has in times past, lead the way here. Not being confined by marketing departments, focus groups, and taproom demographics, home brewers can do what they have always done - brew any damn thing they like, whenever they like! I am hoping they will help save beer from itself by reminding the industry how many great styles of beer are languishing in the uncool pile right now, and inspiring commercial brewers to bring them back. Don’t forget, there’d be no Pliny the Elder or Allagash White without home brewers. You have the power.
Almost to make a liar of myself above, the next trend I noticed growing when I was last there in 2023 has now blossomed into, I think, a slightly more healthy and variety-filled tendency than the blind “make hazy IPA and nothing else” craze. There’s a running joke amongst a certain type of IT person which is to declare every year “The Year of Linux on the Desktop”. Similarly, among brewers, we often joke about “The Year of the Lager”. Well, it’s well and truly here, and I’m calling it now as a decade, rather than a mere year. I saw a lot more lager popping up, in so many forms, and on so many taps. Most of it didn’t feel like jumping on a bandwagon for the sake of it, but that could just be because the standard of brewing in the US is generally so high that even the beers phoned in to tick a box are still of extremely high quality. There are entire breweries dedicated to the art of the lager now, with a particular shout-out to Cohesion Brewing in Denver, CO for their variety of Czech styles, and their method of serving them in the various “foam” pours (Hladinka, Šnyt, and Mliko for a couple fingers, half-foam, and almost-all-foam respectively). This is a true experience, and whilst I don’t really “get” the Mliko pour, and I’m told that even the Czechs see it as a bit gimmicky, the Hladinka is a thing of utter beauty. I don’t know when we’ll get our first Lukr tap in New Zealand, but it can’t be far away. Is it already here? Let me know… Home brewers? I recommend experimenting with this style of lager brewing - from the classic Czech-style Pils, through to the dark and complex, but super drinkable Tmavé. Maybe one of you will open NZ’s first niche Czech-style brewery? Don’t sleep on rice lagers either - I saw a lot of those on taps at some very influential breweries.
Low/No Alcohol is a trend I wish I could ignore, but it is certainly “a thing”. Interestingly, less in taprooms and breweries but more in bars. I think this is due to the inherent health risks involved in serving No Alcohol beers on tap. Without the presence of alcohol to kill bacteria, you’re left with an almost perfect growth medium for spoilage bacteria, and some of those will be pathogenic. Advice from the US Brewers Association (and our own NZ Brewers Guild) is to never serve No Alcohol beers on tap. Even packaging in cans and bottles requires a lot more care. Nobody wants to kill their customers. My personal view on this trend is that it’s a move in the wrong direction, driven by marketing terms like “lifestyle” rather than a love of beer and flavour. That’s what got us into this mess! However, there’s no denying that it’s a big thing in the USA, and will likely be so here in NZ also. Homebrewers - I guess all you can do is decide which side of it you want to be on, and brew accordingly! Be super careful with sanitation though, as this could actually make you sick if you get it wrong.
IPA space is changing too. What’s old is new again, and there’s a definite “clear and bitter” resurgence in everyone’s favourite hoppy style. In addition, particularly in California, I saw a lot of XPA. While we never really could decide what an XPA was down here (“marketing exercise” might be a tad harsh), the Australians truly embraced it as a mid point between pale ale and IPA, with extreme clarity, an abv around six-ish percent, and a good amount of bright, summery, hops. The Americans have taken the Aussie style and run with it, and it’s now both “extra pale” ale and “extra” pale ale! That is, it’s paler and clearer than most IPAs and it’s stronger too, but not often into the 7% territory of the true West Coast IPAs. Home brewers? Practice your clearest, palest, strongest pale ales, and hone them to be super drinkable. Light body and higher than normal carbonation helps a lot here. Maybe it’ll get a second life in NZ as an actual style this time?
The final trend is nascent, and may not even become “a thing”, but I did see the early rumblings. Thanks to the crazed tariff policies, aluminium is set to become extremely expensive. Brewers are already talking about either having to figure out a way to eat the costs, because consumers are almost at breaking point with the price of beer as it is, or move back to glass bottles. New Zealand isn’t prone to the same problem driving this behaviour, but given the US is a huge market for packaging equipment, we might see a reversal of recent trends of canning tech getting cheaper, while bottling equipment becomes less available. Will this mean more beer back in bottles in NZ? I’d not put money on it, but it’s possible. There’s not a lot home brewers can (or should) do about this one. I mention it only as something to keep an eye on if any of you are considering a professional career in brewing - ie. you enjoy poverty!
Has anyone else out there been to the USA recently? Perhaps to areas I didn’t get to? Did you see anything I missed? Or did you see evidence to the contrary of any of my trends here? I’ve got NO idea what those crazy New Yorkers are up to - they only just got a beer scene! OK, and on that controversial note… I’ll go and have a beer and talk to you again soon.